JULIE LANE PHOTO | Shelter Island School Superintendent Michael Hynes.

If the Shelter Island Board of Education simply rolled over its 2011-12 budget for 2012-13 with no changes in staffing, programs or cuts, taxpayers would be looking at a 4.5 percent increase in the school tax rate, according to Superintendent Michael Hynes.

In an interview at his office Monday morning, Dr. Hynes said he and board members, who begin budgeting for the next school year this week, will have to scrap at least $200,000 in spending from the existing budget to meet the new state-imposed 2 percent cap on any increases in tax hikes.

“I plan the way I always plan; I don’t expect anything from New York State,” Dr. Hynes said.

If state aid is more than expected and Albany rolls back some unfunded mandates, that will inform actions the district is able to take later, Dr. Hynes said. But he added he doesn’t expect either before April, when the district budget must be finalized and presented to the public.

At a time when there’s so much pressure to increase student test scores and enhance programs, “It’s a recipe for disaster,” Dr. Hynes said about the combination of the new tax cap and the uncertainty about what if any mandate relief might be forthcoming.

For a full story on the district’s struggle to stay within the 2 percent tax cap, see the Shelter Island Reporter on Thursday, January 12.