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Report: Drought to persist through January 31

Greg Toner
Ken Pysher (left) and Greg Toner

Shelter Island remains in a “severe drought” despite recent rains and a forecast issued by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) anticipates the condition will persist at least through the end of January.
Water Advisory Committee members Greg Toner and Ken Pysher, who compile data provided by the United States Geological Survey, said test well heights on the Island are still relatively low, but they’re not critical.

“Voluntary water conservation should be maintained,” they wrote in their monthly  report. “A dry winter could put us in a bad situation next spring and summer.”

Water heights above mean sea level for nine test wells are slightly higher than they were in September.

Overall, the percentile change for 11 test wells showed only modest change, but there is concern at the Goat Hill well that’s only 2.3 percent above its historic minimum for October. Still, except for the Rams, the test wells are below their historic averages.

The men speculated that the higher readings at the Big Ram and Little Ram wells might reflect unusually high tides they refer to as “king tides.” Resulting percentage reading for those were 64.64 for Little Ram and 23.7 for Big Ram. The other test wells showed changes of less than 10 percent.

The “Big 4” wells — Manhansett, Manwaring, Congdon and Goat Hill — often a harbinger of overall conditions — went down slightly from their September readings, but are better than they were early in the summer.

But their readings when considering percentages over minimum “went the wrong way,” this month’s report said.

The four wells dropped from 29 percent of their minimum readings to 14,8 percent of minimum readings.

“This may be a function of the difference in the high/low range between September and October,” the report said.

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